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Paul Bivand's avatar

I find the emphasis on rapid iteration a little strange, given that for some uses, an outcome can only be defined satisfactorily over a period, sometimes an extended period.

You mentioned services aimed at getting people into work who have been out of work for a long time. I've evaluated some, and observed changes in management and evaluation over time. All outcome measures, whether payment related or not, will be gamed. There has been a lot of evidence of that. The measure of 'a job' has extended over time from a single day, over a long series of steps, to a cumulative period of six months in paid work, to the equivalent of that in full-time hours at the National Living Wage. The high end obviously has higher return on investment, given that the return on the short end would be negligible, unless there was evidence that getting a short end outcome was predictive of getting a high end outcome, to a reasonable degree.

Even longer outcome periods can be seen in the careers space - you want to inform 16 year olds of the implications of the educational and career choices open - which may include a further 5 years in full-time education (or more) and the subsequent chances of earnings, for which you have data on their predecessors 10 years ago. Cutting the outcome period down mostly misinforms people of how different education/earnings patterns would apply.

The world, of course, moves underneath such long measures, as the qualification/employment/earnings relationship changes.

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